Lesson 8 Scientific Collaboration on Climate Change
Limitations of Science
What are our limitations with ongoing research into climate change?
How does science measure weather? How does it determine climate?
Historically, weather was measure using weather stations in large cities and some small towns. Ships also collected weather data. This data documented only a fraction of the Earth's weather in total, so it gave only an incomplete picture.
Weather data is also collected by balloons and airplanes in the atmosphere, and by submarines and floating stations underwater. Yet this is only a small sample of world weather.
A complete picture of world weather might be obtained by a systematic array of weather stations world wide. This is not economically feasible. Instead we have used satellites and remote sensing to obtain global data over the past few decades. Science has been studying climate for only a short amount of time.
You have seen that historic weather and climate data can be be obtained indirectly using ice core samples, varves, tree rings, etc. This gives use data for hundreds of thousands of years. You also know that there are many mechanisms that affect climate, like intensity of the sun, size and shape of Earth's orbit, and tilt of Earth's axis.
Climate models are mathematical models that rely on powerful computers to process all of the variables. Considering the issues with data, and the factors that affect climate, making computerized climate models has be only moderately successful.
Predicting future climate is hindered by a lack of data, an incomplete knowledge of the complex factors that affect climate, and a limit on the processing power of computers running massive amounts of data through complex mathematical algorithms. Predictions over vast areas of Earth seem accurate, but predictions about smaller areas, like North America, are less reliable.
Scientists agree climate change is occurring, the effects this will have on Earth and on individual locations are not clear. The biosphere is a very complex system with many interactions, so it is very difficult to predict what will happen when one or many of those interactions change. Even factors that seem simple, such as the effect of clouds on climate, have turned out to be very complex. The impacts of climate change could be quite small, or they could be huge. Recent natural disasters, such as the six major hurricanes, the floods in South Asia, the droughts in East Africa, and the forest fires across North America in 2017 alone, seem to point to the impacts of climate change being quite large. None of these natural disasters were caused solely by climate change, but it was a factor.
Historically, weather was measure using weather stations in large cities and some small towns. Ships also collected weather data. This data documented only a fraction of the Earth's weather in total, so it gave only an incomplete picture.
Weather data is also collected by balloons and airplanes in the atmosphere, and by submarines and floating stations underwater. Yet this is only a small sample of world weather.
A complete picture of world weather might be obtained by a systematic array of weather stations world wide. This is not economically feasible. Instead we have used satellites and remote sensing to obtain global data over the past few decades. Science has been studying climate for only a short amount of time.
You have seen that historic weather and climate data can be be obtained indirectly using ice core samples, varves, tree rings, etc. This gives use data for hundreds of thousands of years. You also know that there are many mechanisms that affect climate, like intensity of the sun, size and shape of Earth's orbit, and tilt of Earth's axis.
Climate models are mathematical models that rely on powerful computers to process all of the variables. Considering the issues with data, and the factors that affect climate, making computerized climate models has be only moderately successful.
"Modern climate models can simulate the present-day climate and some historical climate fluctuations reasonably well. These models describe the climate with satisfactory reliability, especially on a global scale. But for smaller geographical areas the models are less reliable. It is much easier to infer the globally averaged temperature than to predict the future precipitation in Berlin. Extensive measurement series are required to better understand regional climate. For many regions of the Earth, in the Southern Ocean for example, there are long time periods in the past with only a limited number of measurements. Today data are provided in these areas by satellites." (worldoceanrivew.com)
Predicting future climate is hindered by a lack of data, an incomplete knowledge of the complex factors that affect climate, and a limit on the processing power of computers running massive amounts of data through complex mathematical algorithms. Predictions over vast areas of Earth seem accurate, but predictions about smaller areas, like North America, are less reliable.
Scientists agree climate change is occurring, the effects this will have on Earth and on individual locations are not clear. The biosphere is a very complex system with many interactions, so it is very difficult to predict what will happen when one or many of those interactions change. Even factors that seem simple, such as the effect of clouds on climate, have turned out to be very complex. The impacts of climate change could be quite small, or they could be huge. Recent natural disasters, such as the six major hurricanes, the floods in South Asia, the droughts in East Africa, and the forest fires across North America in 2017 alone, seem to point to the impacts of climate change being quite large. None of these natural disasters were caused solely by climate change, but it was a factor.
D8.13 Different versions of the same location
Read This
Please read pages 415 and 416 under “Evaluating the Evidence of Climate Change” in your Science 10 textbook. Make sure you take notes on your readings to study from later. You should focus on the limitations scientists face while studying and predicting climate change. Remember, if you have any questions or you do not understand something, ask your teacher!Practice Questions
Complete the following practice questions to check your understanding of the concept you just learned. Make sure you write complete answers to the practice questions in your notes. After you have checked your answers, make corrections to your responses (where necessary) to study from.- What are the political limitations discussed in this section regarding climate change?
The political limitations discussed in the course are requiring countries to work together toward a common goal, needing countries to implement changes to reach those goals, and convincing the general population to accept the changes that need to be made.
- What are the scientific limitations discussed in this section regarding climate change?
Scientists do not fully understand all the limitations in the biosphere, and this limits their ability to understand climate change and predict what will happen. Climatology is also a relatively new field of science, so there is not much data to work with. Paleoclimatology uses indirect data, such as the space between tree rings or the particles and air pockets embedded within glaciers, to infer what the climate was like in the distant past.