Lesson 1

Lesson 1: Experimental Probability

 

Focus

 

Various levels of predicted and worst-case scenario flooding are often shown on flood maps. However, estimating flooding beyond the “100-year flood” is a difficult task, as there is a lack of historical flood information to compare.

 

Estimates of how often a flood will occur in a given time period are referred to as a “1-in-20-year flood” or “1-in-100-year flood” and are based on the amount of flooding that occurs.

 

The longer the time period, the larger the flood event. Statistically, this means that a 1-in-100-year flood will have a one percent chance of occurring in any given year. A 1-in-100-year flood would be rarer and much bigger than a 1-in-20-year flood.

 

This does not mean that if a 100-year flood happened this year, it wouldn't happen again for another 100 years. It could happen again next year, or even two or more times in any year.

 

Lesson Outcome

 

At the end of this lesson you will be able to use data to help make predictions and/or determine the probability of an event.

 

Lesson Question

In this lesson you will investigate the following question:

• How does probability affect your decisions?

Assessment

Your assessment may be based on a combination of the following tasks:

• completion of the Lesson 1 Assignment (Download the Lesson 1 Assignment and save it in your course folder now.)
• course folder submissions from Try This and Share activities
• additions to Glossary Terms and Formula Sheet
• work under Project Connection

Self-Check activities are for your own use. You can compare your answers to suggested answers to see if you are on track. If you have difficulty with concepts or calculations, contact your teacher.

 

Remember that the questions and activities you will encounter provide you with the practice and feedback you need to successfully complete this course. You should complete all questions and place your responses in your course folder. Your teacher may wish to view your work to check on your progress and to see if you need help.

 

Materials and Equipment

 

You will need

• calculator
• two standard six-sided dice (virtual dice are also available in the lesson)