Module 1 Project

Applying Probability in a Business

 

Project Overview

 

Process

Towards the end of each lesson, under Project Connection, you will be prompted to complete a part of the Module 1 Project. You can access the entire project from this page at any time.

 

Make sure to save all work from each Project Connection in your course folder. You will submit your Module 1 Project to your teacher at the end of Module 1. Check with your teacher about how you should submit your project work before you begin the project.

 

It is estimated that this project will take three hours in total to complete. To help you successfully manage the project and your time, you will be directed to parts of the project throughout the lessons as you learn the necessary concepts. You are encouraged to take the time to complete each part of the project as you complete the lessons.

 

Presentation

 

The most important part of your project presentation is clearly explaining and supporting your reasoning with relevant visuals and calculations. Make sure to show all your work.

 

Review the Project Rubric to ensure you understand how you will be assessed on this project. The final presentation of this project will be in report form.

 

Project Introduction

 

Probability calculations can be useful in a business setting. In this project you will take on the role of a person planning to open a business that sells health supplements and products to a target market of older people. Canada’s population is aging and more people are reaching retirement age. Because of this, you think that more people will want to purchase products that will help them maintain their health.

 

Part 1: Start to Plan

 

Step A

 

Begin your project by researching the following topics:

• common types of health supplements: These may include vitamins, nutritional powders, health drinks, and similar products.
• the percentage of Canada’s population aged 65 or older.
• the population of your community

If any assistance is required in starting your research, consult your teacher.

 

Step B

 

Use your data to answer the following questions.

1. Estimate the number of people in your community who are 65 or older.
2. If 32% of people aged 65 or older purchase health supplements, how many potential customers live in your community?
3. If the probability of these potential customers shopping at your store, rather than at a competing store, is , how many customers can you expect?
4. During the summer, tourism increases the number of people 65 years old or older by 10%. If a successful advertising campaign increases the probability of a customer shopping in your store to , how many customers can you expect during the summer months?

Project Checklist

 

Your final project will include the following:

• a report that describes your business and the products it will sell, and an estimate of the number of potential customers it will have
• a record of the calculations you made

A project checklist is included to help you organize and keep track of your work before you write a report.

 

Part 2: Products and Promotions

 

In this part of your project, assume that your business is open. Consider the type of products that will appeal to your customers and the number of products you can expect to sell.

 

Step 1: Research two health concerns of older people, as well as two popular health supplements in Canada that address these concerns.

 

Step 2: Based on your results, choose two products to sell.

 

Step 3: Using your knowledge of probability and odds, answer the following questions.

1. After your store opens, you track the number of shoppers who enter the store and the number who make purchases. You find that, out of 200 people who entered the store, 168 made purchases.
   1. What is the experimental probability that a person entering the store will make a purchase?
   2. Assuming you get the number of customers calculated in Step B question 3, how many purchases can you expect, given this experimental probability?
   3. What are the odds against a person entering the store making a purchase?
2. You conduct a survey to assess the popularity of a particular health drink. You learn that 84 out of 144 people who bought the health drink plan to buy it again.
   1. Calculate the probability that a person who has bought the health drink once will buy it again.
   2. Calculate the probability that a person who buys the health drink once will not buy it again.
   3. If every customer who makes a purchase (the number of customers you calculated in question 1.b.) buys a health drink, how many of them would you expect to buy the drink again?
   4. Based on your calculations, will you continue to sell this drink?
3. After your store opens, you give each customer who makes a purchase a coupon to encourage them to return. In a container, you have different kinds of coupons. There are 150 coupons for a 5% discount, 50 coupons for a 10% discount, and 25 coupons for a 15% discount.
   1. Calculate the probability that a customer will receive a coupon for a 10% discount.
   2. Calculate the probability that a customer will receive a coupon for a 15% discount.
   3. What are the odds in favour of a customer receiving a coupon for a 5% discount?
   4. What are the odds against a customer receiving a coupon for a 10% discount?

Part 3: Conclusion

 

Report Your Findings

 

Write a short report that describes your business and the type of products you will sell. Identify two products you will stock and the health concerns they address. Include an estimate of the number of customers you can expect and the increase in potential customers in the summer. In a separate section of the report, include the calculations you made that support your plan.

 

Project Assessment

 

Your Module 1 Project will be evaluated by your teacher using the evaluation guidelines in the Project Rubric. Read the rubric carefully. Make sure you are aware how you will be assessed. You can print or save a digital copy of the Project Rubric as a guide to help you complete your project.

 

Don’t forget to submit your completed Module 1 Project to your teacher at the end of Module 1.

 

Source: MathWorks 12 Student Book/Teacher Guide. (Vancouver:Pacific Educational Press, 2011.)