3.2.7 Keynesian Economic Theory

As the Great Depression showed, the free-market economy does not always correct itself immediately during cycles of boom and bust. In fact, the Great Depression seemed to get worse as time passed, causing hardship for many.

The "natural law" according to classical liberalism is that where there is economic freedom the economy will correct itself. Classical liberal economic theory follows a belief that if producers are given the economic freedom to produce goods and services, they will produce what people want and the invisible hand economy will meet the most needs of individuals. Although classical liberals agreed that bad times will be followed by good times, and the instability of the free market system, they also believed that through self-interest of entrepreneurs and investment, the market would fix itself.

Classical liberal economists also believe that self-reliance and self-interest will lead people to save their earnings for recessions or depressions. The assumption was that people and governments supposedly understand this cycle, and therefore they will save when times are good (boom) to protect themselves when times are bad (bust). Therefore, there is no need for the government to get involved.

Think about this for a moment. Is this assumption of human nature and self-interest true for people you know? Do individuals save when times are good? Do they know or anticipate when the economy is about to take a downturn?

Does the market always regulate itself?


 

John Maynard Keynes, March 8th 1946. Photo by the IMF, Courtesy of Wikimedia Commons, Public Domain.

 British economist John Maynard Keynes did not believe that the economy would always correct itself according to the principles of classical liberalism.

During the depression, he saw that the business cycle was not stable. He felt that during times of economic instability, people tended to hang on to their money. He saw that when times were bad, people were not confident in the economy and did not invest. This caused further downturn and prolonged the recession.





 "An Intro to Keynes's The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money: A Macat Economics Video", Macat, You-tube



Keynes' Demand Side Economic Theory

Keynes believed that consumer demand causes the highs and lows of the business cycle. When times are good, people spend freely, causing inflation.It also leads to an oversupply of goods that no one wants to buy. When times are bad, people do not spend or invest, creating a downward spiral. Effective demand means that supply and demand works only when consumers have purchasing power. Keynes ideas were called demand-side economics, as opposed to supply-side economics.

Keynes believed the government should regulate and stimulate the economy. When the business cycle is on an upswing, the government and its central bank should raise interest rates and raise taxes to encourage people to limit spending and save their money while at the same time reducing government spending. This would cool economic activity. As the economy slows, the government should lower interest rates, lower taxes, and increase government spending even if it means the government has to go into a temporary deficit that would be paid back during boom times.

Decreased taxes and lower rates for borrowing would put more money in people's pockets, leading to increased spending that would pump money back into the economy.


Creative Commons Courtesy Jason Welker

Keynes' Solution: Fiscal and Monetary Policies

Keynes' theories included both fiscal and monetary policies. Fiscal policies include government spending, taxation, and government borrowing. Monetary policies are those that control the money supply in a country, including printing money and establishing interest rates.



"Political Theory: John Maynard Keynes", The School of Life, You-tube

 




Classical Economic Theory

Keynesian Theory

  • People produce so they can buy what they need.
  • Producers will re-invest profits to improve productivity. The cost of borrowing is lower than the rate of return on investment.
  • Not everything that is produced will be in demand; not everything that is in demand will be produced.
  • Producers might not re-invest; they might prefer to retain their profits. The cost of borrowing might be higher than the rate of return on new investment.
  • Perfect competition is a natural state.
  • Full employment is natural.
  • The ups and downs of the business cycle are temporary and will self-adjust.
  • Competition is never perfect; some will have advantage over others.
  • Full employment is rarely achieved.
  • Economies do not always bounce back; prices and wages do not adjust immediately in response to supply and demand.
  • Money is only a medium of exchange.
  • Consumer spending is a result of of income.
  • Consumers will reduce spending and investors will stop investing if they are not confident in economic growth.

Keynes ideas were implemented in many countries during and after the Great Depression. Keynes was one of the chief economic advisors at the Bretton Woods Conference, which was an international conference held near the end of World War II to help prevent another global recession. The Bretton Woods Conference helped establish international rules for trade, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund, large institutions that all had a part in preventing another Great Depression following World War II.

His ideas remained a powerful influence until the early 1970s, and there is renewed interest in them today. There will be further examination of various modern economic systems in Unit Six.


Read "Keynesian Economics" in the section titled "Keynes's Theories in Practice: The Advent of the Welfare State" on pages 147 to 149 of your text Perspectives on Ideology.

As you read, consider the issue question:

  • How did Keynesian demand side economics alter classical liberal approaches to the business cycle?


As you read about Keynesian economics, take notes on the following:
  • What ideas are presented about classical liberalism and laissez-faire capitalism?
  • How were these ideas a rejection of classical liberalism or an extension of greater freedoms for all?
  • How were these policies and programs justified? 

Keynesian Economics and Today's Economy

Consider the contemporary political cartoon:
 



  • Who is represented by the character in the hat?
  • What is the cartoonist's perspective on Keynesian economics today?
  • What perspective does he have regarding classical liberalism?

"Regarding the Ongoing Irrelevance of Keynesian Economics", by Barry Deutsch, courtesy of www.leftycartoons.com

 

 


The Recession of 2008

The modern industrial world entered a recession in December 2007. It was precipitated by the deregulation of the banking industry and speculation in American real estate and equities. Financial institutions loaned money recklessly to unsecured borrowers for mortgages; the result is sometimes referred to as the "subprime lending crisis".

For example, lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were allowed to buy people's mortgages without keeping any significant amount of capital on hand. In other words, these financial institutions owned other people's debts. As house prices increased, and people were forced to renew mortgages at rates they could not afford to repay, they defaulted on their loans. These companies were left owning the titles to properties that no longer had significant value.

For example, a house with a mortgage of $300 000 now might be worth less than $100 000. In other words, banks loaned money to people who had no form of security and had not shown that they had the ability to repay their loans. Many people bought houses at inflated prices, renegotiated their mortgages, and ended owing more than they could hope to repay.

As the crisis mounted, many large banks and lending organizations faced failure and bankruptcy. International trade decreased. Thousands lost their jobs.

The global recession led many governments, especially that of the United States, to look at Keynesian policies again. The American government spent millions bailing out industries that failed or were about to fail. Classical liberal economists (free-market supporters) largely criticized this move, as they believed this intervention distorted the natural course of the business cycle, giving these companies an economic advantage. Modern liberals applauded the intervention, claiming that the mass unemployment would have caused undue suffering across America. In essence, the decision was these companies were simply 'too big to fail'.



"The 2008 Financial Crisis: Crash Course Economics #12", CrashCourse, You-tube